In June England will see New Zealand pay their first visit for a test series since 2015, and whilst it is hardly shaping up to be as exciting as that series, there are some intriguing match ups in the offing.
England will be without players such as Ben Stokes, Jos Buttler, Moeen Ali and Chris Woakes which may throw their balance out of alignment but provides an exciting opportunity to some fringe players.
Ben Foakes was due to play his first home Test Match but a freak changing room injury (England are making a habit of these) ended that particular ambition.
Sam Billings received his first red-ball international call up, but the most heart-warming inclusion was Haseeb Hameed for the first time since 2017.
Foakes’ absence forced these inclusions and the reasoning for bringing in two players to replace one appears to be that James Bracey will make his debut. Bracey’s debut means that England lose a back up keeper and top order bat, thus, the inclusions of Billings and Hameed.
There is a lot of excitement about the prospect of seeing James Bracey make his first senior England appearance and it is pretty clear why. His record is solid, but as usual with young players who are promoted early on, he clearly has ‘it’. Bracey the batter is quite dissimilar from other young English stroke-makers such as Zak Crawley, Dan Lawrence and Ollie Pope, his ability to build an innings is probably second to none among players of his stature in county cricket currently. Bracey has one of the highest balls per dismissal when playing a defensive stroke in the country, which proves that he has the defensive game to make it at a higher level.
Many players who come into the England team who succeed on slightly dodgy county wickets fall short because they do not have what it takes to build and then cash in at the right time, Bracey has the tools to buck this trend.
It does look as though the top three is fairly settled going into this game with Rory Burns, Dom Sibley and Zak Crawley set to resume their roles at the top of the order. This is a top three with plenty to prove (Averages of 30, 30 and 34 respectively) but Sibley and Crawley proved last year they have what it takes against high quality pace bowling, and if Burns can rediscover some of his Ashes form from 2019, I start to have a little more confidence.
Realistically, to give Bracey the best chance of success, integrating him in his preferred position is difficult, but I would rather see him bat no lower than number 5. Preferably he would bat at three or four but with a settled top three and the the prospect of Joe Root shuffling down one place looking unrealistic, number 5 may be the only position available inside the top five.
Although I personally would like to see Bracey higher up, with Pope keeping his number six spot, and Lawrence staying at seven after his performances against India, this seems completely unlikely. Bracey is likely to fill in as a fairly standard wicketkeeping role, batting at number seven. Whilst there is little doubt he can make the best of his situation, and will be delighted to make his debut no matter the batting position, I am unsure whether the number seven spot gives him his best shot.
Ollie Pope and Dan Lawrence both have modest international records so far, but their talent is evident, whilst their mettle has never appeared to be an issue. Both have shown glimpses of what we can expect going forward for their careers. Pope’s maiden hundred in South Africa and Lawrence’s pair of outings in the fourth test in India (he appeared to be batting on a different pitch) are clear indicators of great talent.
Whilst their first class averages seem worlds apart – Pope averages over 50, Lawrence 38 – these are much closer than they appear at first glance. Pope averages nearly 100 batting at the Oval – which is a road – and whilst this does not totally devalue the runs he churns out, it is worth considering how much better this is than Lawrence’s. The Essex man plays more games at Chelmsford than anywhere else, a pitch which is rather towards the opposite end of the spectrum, an average of 38 is more impressive when you consider the nature of the wickets he can expect at home.
This England top seven is inexperienced and much weakened by the absence of Jos Buttler and Ben Stokes but it represents an exciting opportunity. One of Pope, Bracey and Lawrence can reasonably expect to remain in the side when the two IPL men return, and must make the most of this opportunity.
This brings us on to the visitors’ bowling line-up. New Zealand have a varied and lethal attack who will relish bowling at Lords, Trent Boult, Tim Southee and Neil Wagner have experience on English decks both internationally and domestically. Kyle Jameson represents the sort of challenge English batsmen have not faced for a while. Standing tall at 6 foot 8, Jameson is intimidating in stature but bowls a fairly tidy line and length, a manner of bowling which England will not relish on the Lords slope.
New Zealand have proven that they do not mind going sans spinner in home tests so there is no reason to suspect they will diverge from this and pick Mitchell Santner in a holding role. With the four seamers listed above, plus Colin de Grandhomme (if selected) to add batting depth and nibbly medium pace, they are a dangerous prospect. As a brief aside, de Grandhomme is the perfect bowler to come on first change and make England fold like a very bad hand, they just cannot get enough of medium pace seamers.
New Zealand also have the most settled batting line-up around currently. Tom Latham has been one of the most consistent performers in all conditions in the world in recent years, and Tom Blundell seems likely to partner him at the top of the order. The immovable Kane Williamson and Ross Taylor are in next, if both decide that today is the day, they could decide the series.
Henry Nicholls is one of the most under-the-radar performers in the world at the moment and has a century in his last test outing. BJ Watling will retire after touring England and will leave a sizeable hole in the New Zealand middle order. His obstinate resistance is not a thrilling brand of cricket, but it has rescued his team numerous times. If he chooses to dig in, England could be in for a long session or three. The man in possession at number seven is currently Daryl Mitchell and a century against Pakistan last time out does little to dispel this. Mitchell is firmly in ‘batter who bowls’ territory but if Kane Williamson does want to go with four front line bowlers then Mitchell can make up the overs in between spells admirably.
The England bowling lineup that will hope to tackle this New Zealand top seven features two of the greatest to ever pull on test whites, at least one of the best domestic performers of the last 3 years, and at least one 90mph bowler. James Anderson and Stuart Broad, if fit, play automatically. We have all seen what they do to visiting openers in the last decade, it isn’t really fair, and whoever New Zealand pick to partner Latham will face a tough start to life in England.
England should be considering playing four seamers for the first test. If they do then at least one of Craig Overton and Ollie Robinson must play. Robinson averages less than 17 with the ball since 2017 in the County Championship, whilst Overton has a similarly outrageous record and has put on the fabled yard of pace since his last outing. My preference would be for the uncapped Robinson, who hits the deck hard at a huge height, can swing the ball enough to trouble top order batters and most of all, can bowl at any stage of an innings. According to Cricviz, Robinson has the best combination of false shot percentage and bowling average of any bowler in the Championship, and his average actually gets better throughout latter stages of an innings. This ability to bowl with the ball in any condition will make him invaluable for England’s bowling line-up, especially given that any bowler introduced will have to wait for Anderson and Broad to use the new ball. He can also bat (ditto for Overton). The final spot should be taken by one of Olly Stone and Mark Wood. Both are capable of maintaining frightening speeds throughout, while Olly Stone offers greater control, his outing in India doing little to hurt his chances. Both are capable with the bat in hand so it will come down to who Chris Silverwood feels offers the best recipe on the Lords surface.
A quick word for Jack Leach. Leach will be unfortunate to miss out here after his fantastic outing in the winter and his showing in his last home test (4-49 against Australia). If selected, Leach will perform perfectly well, but I just don’t see that he will be necessary. Lords suits England’s seamers far more and Joe Root and Dan Lawrence can offer some respite with their above average off-spinners.
Predictions
As a huge cop out, I think this series will be drawn 1-1. New Zealand will win one game, I am sure of it, despite their pretty dreadful away record in the ‘big three’ nations. England will have a chance to use the Lords slope to their advantage considering New Zealand have not toured here since 2015, but the thought of England’s top three facing up to THAT seam attack does bring me out in a cold sweat.
Photo credit: Ben Sutherland on flickr, creative commons 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/legalcode
Michael Vince on Sport 
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